Modeling and comparing the volume of natural and cesarean delivery of Darab and survey of dependent form volume of neonatal mortality due to birth by cesareans occurred in Darab Download PDF

Introduction: Cesarean has been accounted for a high percentage of deliveries performed in Iran and the rate is increasing. The aim of this study is to investigate and predict the relationship between mode of delivery (caesarean or natural) and neonatal mortality. Methods: This is a cross sectional study of the total number of cesarean deliveries in the city of Darab (Iran) during the period of four years. To illustrate the trends and predictions of cesarean and natural surgery volume in Darab, time series models co-integration techniques, particularly ARDL and ECM error correction techniques are used. To estimate designed dynamic models for the analysis of neonatal mortality demand in cesarean EVies 6 and Microfit 4.1 software were used. Results: 34.62% of deliveries were as cesarean and 65.38% of the deliveries were natural. The results of estimating the volume function of neonatal mortality in the short term and long term cesarean showed that the cross-communication of cesarean volume was effective in the response function. Discussion: Factors affecting the volume function of neonatal mortality in cesarean depends on the volume of cesarean demand. So in order to control the reduction of neonatal mortality, it is necessary to inform policies and programs for pregnant women and also use more features and adopted recruitment of highly qualified medical specialists in hospitals of cities.